16404 High Rd

Cobb, CA 95426

$275,000F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 957 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-51/mo
• Annual: $-616/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-616/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $162 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $275k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.