16404 High Rd · Cobb, CA 95426

$275,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 957 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1964 6,970 sqft lot Est $217k · 27% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Classic Cobb Mountain Cottage with Modern Comforts and Timeless Charm: Nestled among the trees in a peaceful woodland setting, this charming two bedroom, one and a half bath cottage offers close to one thousand square feet of comfortable living space and the perfect blend of vintage character and quality modern upgrades. A spacious wraparound deck invites you to relax among the trees and enjoy the soothing sounds of a nearby creek. Inside, you'll find engineered wood flooring, a beautiful tongue-and-groove exposed beam ceiling, a cozy pellet stove, quartz kitchen countertops with a granite composite sink, tile flooring, and a tiled shower. The bathroom features heated tile floors and wainsc

Key facts

• Storage loft
• Wraparound deck
• Heated tile floors

Tags

• WRAPAROUND DECK
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• GRANITE COMPOSITE SINK
• HEATED TILE FLOORS
• STORAGE LOFT
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total units: 1
• HOA & community: Community features include watersports, horse trails, golf course, biking, hiking, fishing, mountainous terrain, lake access, park, and hunting

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway up slope from street; Off-street parking on site; Private parking
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Public/district water; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; Single-story; Entry from street; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Wrap-around deck and patio; Community pool; Treed and corner lot; Up slope from street; Has view; Fishing available in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen; Quartz counters; Granite counters; Propane stove; Microwave; High-efficiency water heater
• Bedrooms: Main floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on main level; Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Remodeled bathrooms; Walk-in shower; Heated bathroom floor; Granite counters in bath
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; Electric heating; Ductless heating; Pellet heating stove; Ductless electric cooling; Energy Star cooling; Pellet stove fireplace
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Open floor plan; Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Granite counters; Street-level entry; One-level living; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors; Double pane windows; Turnkey condition
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Stackable washer/dryer space; Laundry located in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-616/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $162 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $275k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,694 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,239
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16121 Golf Rd	0.41mi	2/2.0	960 (+0%)	6mo	$218,000	$227	73
16520 Schwartz Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,072 (+12%)	10mo	$299,000	$279	65
10000 Meadow Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+7%)	23mo	$220,000	$216	56
16035 Madrone Blvd	0.61mi	2/1.0	912 (-5%)	14mo	$325,000	$356	50
10352 Twin Oaks	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+15%)	9mo	$135,000	$123	48
15935 Bottle Rock Rd	0.71mi	2/1.5	856 (-11%)	22mo	$155,000	$181	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-19,483
• Equity at exit: $71,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $5,645
• Equity at exit: $79,081

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95426

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,625/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $265,928

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $275,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,625 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$465/yr (+$39/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,625
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,469
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cobb, CA
• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 1,265

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Iranian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.63%
• Current HPI: 145.2378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+266.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $275,000 CRMLS
• 2007-10-03 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-03-06 Listed $224,995 CRMLS
• 1996-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,625 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.