539 Manhasset Woods Rd

Flower Hill, NY 11030

$2,950,000C+

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 5,302 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Active · 491 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,470
• Tax + insurance: −$3,626
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $654/mo
• Annual: $7,852/yr
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $826,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $2.95M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.50M (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 491 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.60M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.50M (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $179k of equity ($20k loan paydown + $159k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Port Washington Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #69 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $549k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.99M; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $826k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$287k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 491 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.