539 Manhasset Woods Rd · Flower Hill, NY 11030

$2,950,000

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 5,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 491 Days on market

Built 1928 1.10 ac lot $556/sqft · 34% below area Est $4520k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully Located on one of the most prestigious block in the heart of the Village of Flower Hill this distinctive Tudor has much to offer. Unique in character from a different era, step into A two story entry foyer With Grand Fireplace Leading to sunken den and cathedral ceiling. Huge formal dining room gourmet eat in kitchen with top of the line appliances and radiant heat. Primary bedroom suite with two separate luxury baths additional bedroom or office with fireplace, grand staircase rises to the second floor balcony landing with two additional bedrooms and full bath access to attic . Additionally this magical home features a separate guest house with bedroom and full bath. Full circular driveway beautiful landscaped grounds all within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana Shopping Center and Country clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Guest Quarters,Marble Bath,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 490 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $2.95M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.50M (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.50M (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Port Washington Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #69 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $179k of equity ($20k loan paydown + $159k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $826k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$287k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 491 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.60M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $549k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.99M; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,500,000 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 491 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,519,511
• List price: $2,950,000
• Delta: -34.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
47 Mallard Rd	0.16mi	6/6.0 (+1)	5,364 (+1%)	11mo	$2,558,000	$477	74
112 Plymouth Ct	0.10mi	6/6.0 (+1)	5,200 (-2%)	13mo	$5,830,000	$1,121	74
325 Stonytown Rd	0.10mi	5/5.5	5,200 (-2%)	23mo	$3,550,000	$683	73
30 Bonnie Heights Rd	0.13mi	6/5.5 (+1)	4,797 (-10%)	4mo	$4,650,000	$969	70
9 Knolls Ln	0.13mi	5/5.0	6,074 (+15%)	12mo	$3,750,000	$617	58
5 North Dr	0.65mi	5/4.5	5,300 (-0%)	11mo	$3,530,000	$666	56
27 Hemlock Rd	0.44mi	5/4.5	4,693 (-12%)	6mo	$3,200,000	$682	51
94 Gristmill Ln	0.67mi	5/4.5	5,430 (+2%)	12mo	$4,800,000	$884	51
55 Gristmill Ln	0.59mi	6/4.0 (+1)	5,407 (+2%)	20mo	$3,810,000	$705	42
51 Pinewood Rd	0.51mi	5/4.5	6,000 (+13%)	14mo	$3,520,000	$587	39
35 Woodhill Ln	0.65mi	5/3.0	4,847 (-9%)	23mo	$1,850,000	$382	26
100 Papermill Rd	0.73mi	5/4.5	4,675 (-12%)	22mo	$3,176,000	$679	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $785,785
• Equity at exit: $1,740,444

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $2,310,335
• Equity at exit: $3,062,184

Cash invested: $826,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11030

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,470
• Tax from tax record: −$2,396 /mo · $28,757/yr
• Insurance: −$1,229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,250
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $24,172

Max offer price $2,950,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $737,500
• Closing costs: $88,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Heights Rd Manhasset, NY	5.0	4.5	4411	$25,000	$5.67	6d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 491 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 490 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 489 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 488 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 486 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 482 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 481 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 480 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 477 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 476 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 475 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 474 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 473 DOM
14. 2025-09-12
    price $2,950,000 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Beautifully Located on one of the most prestigious block in the heart of the Village of Flower Hill this distinctive Tudor has much to offer. Unique in character from a different era, step into A two story entry foyer With Grand Fireplace Leading to sunken den and cathedral ceiling. Huge formal dining room gourmet eat in kitchen with top of the line appliances and radiant heat. Primary bedroom suite with two separate luxury baths additional bedroom or office with fireplace, grand staircase rises to the second floor balcony landing with two additional bedrooms and full bath access to attic . Additionally this magical home features a separate guest house with bedroom and full bath. Full circular driveway beautiful landscaped grounds all within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana Shopping Center and Country clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Guest Quarters,Marble Bath,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

15. 2025-09-12
    status Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Beautifully Located on one of the most prestigious block in the heart of the Village of Flower Hill this distinctive Tudor has much to offer. Unique in character from a different era, step into A two story entry foyer With Grand Fireplace Leading to sunken den and cathedral ceiling. Huge formal dining room gourmet eat in kitchen with top of the line appliances and radiant heat. Primary bedroom suite with two separate luxury baths additional bedroom or office with fireplace, grand staircase rises to the second floor balcony landing with two additional bedrooms and full bath access to attic . Additionally this magical home features a separate guest house with bedroom and full bath. Full circular driveway beautiful landscaped grounds all within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana Shopping Center and Country clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Guest Quarters,Marble Bath,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

16. 2025-03-05
    price $3,290,000 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Beautifully Located on one of the most prestigious block in the heart of the Village of Flower Hill this distinctive Tudor has much to offer. Unique in character from a different era, step into A two story entry foyer With Grand Fireplace Leading to sunken den and cathedral ceiling. Huge formal dining room gourmet eat in kitchen with top of the line appliances and radiant heat. Primary bedroom suite with two separate luxury baths additional bedroom or office with fireplace, grand staircase rises to the second floor balcony landing with two additional bedrooms and full bath access to attic . Additionally this magical home features a separate guest house with bedroom and full bath. Full circular driveway beautiful landscaped grounds all within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana Shopping Center and Country clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Guest Quarters,Marble Bath,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

17. 2024-11-01
    listed $3,499,000 Active 956-char remark

    Show marketing remark (956 chars)

    Beautifully Located on one of the most prestigious block in the heart of the Village of Flower Hill this distinctive Tudor has much to offer. Unique in character from a different era, step into A two story entry foyer With Grand Fireplace Leading to sunken den and cathedral ceiling. Huge formal dining room gourmet eat in kitchen with top of the line appliances and radiant heat. Primary bedroom suite with two separate luxury baths additional bedroom or office with fireplace, grand staircase rises to the second floor balcony landing with two additional bedrooms and full bath access to attic . Additionally this magical home features a separate guest house with bedroom and full bath. Full circular driveway beautiful landscaped grounds all within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana Shopping Center and Country clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Excellent,Interior Features:Guest Quarters,Marble Bath,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

18. 2022-06-03
    soldstatus $1,990,000
19. 2022-05-25
    soldstatus $1,990,000 Closed 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    **MAJOR TAX GRIEVANCE ACCEPTED** A distinctive Tudor loaded with character and substance of yesteryear. Enjoy cathedral ceilings and open spaces throughout, three finished levels, main floor boasts a fantastic floor plan for today's living,. Spacious gourmet kitchen, informal dining/breakfast area, impressive sunken living room, sunroom, elegant dining room, private office, family room, and includes a sumptuous principal room with two baths. Through the grand entry foyer with fireplace a beautiful staircase rises to the second balcony landing and introduces two additional bedrooms and bath. House features five bedrooms and 5 and a half baths, 2 fireplaces, open terraces along with a finished basement and three car garage with circular driveway. All within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana shops and Country Clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

20. 2022-03-04
    status Pending 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    **MAJOR TAX GRIEVANCE ACCEPTED** A distinctive Tudor loaded with character and substance of yesteryear. Enjoy cathedral ceilings and open spaces throughout, three finished levels, main floor boasts a fantastic floor plan for today's living,. Spacious gourmet kitchen, informal dining/breakfast area, impressive sunken living room, sunroom, elegant dining room, private office, family room, and includes a sumptuous principal room with two baths. Through the grand entry foyer with fireplace a beautiful staircase rises to the second balcony landing and introduces two additional bedrooms and bath. House features five bedrooms and 5 and a half baths, 2 fireplaces, open terraces along with a finished basement and three car garage with circular driveway. All within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana shops and Country Clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

21. 2021-09-16
    listed $2,095,000 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    **MAJOR TAX GRIEVANCE ACCEPTED** A distinctive Tudor loaded with character and substance of yesteryear. Enjoy cathedral ceilings and open spaces throughout, three finished levels, main floor boasts a fantastic floor plan for today's living,. Spacious gourmet kitchen, informal dining/breakfast area, impressive sunken living room, sunroom, elegant dining room, private office, family room, and includes a sumptuous principal room with two baths. Through the grand entry foyer with fireplace a beautiful staircase rises to the second balcony landing and introduces two additional bedrooms and bath. House features five bedrooms and 5 and a half baths, 2 fireplaces, open terraces along with a finished basement and three car garage with circular driveway. All within close proximity to major highways LIRR, Americana shops and Country Clubs., Additional information: Appearance:Good,Separate Hotwater Heater:Y

22. 2021-04-02
    historical
23. 2021-03-02
    price $2,195,000
24. 2020-10-02
    listed $2,295,000 Active
25. 2020-09-28
    historical
26. 2020-07-22
    price $2,295,000
27. 2019-09-10
    price $2,450,000
28. 2019-06-26
    price $2,590,000
29. 2019-03-28
    listed $2,750,000 New
30. 2013-02-06
    soldstatus $2,500,000
31. 1995-08-18
    soldstatus $890,000
32. 1988-06-20
    soldstatus $760,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $28,757 · $2,396/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $39,306 · $3,275/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,549/yr (+$879/mo · 36.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $300,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$165,246
• − Property taxes: −$28,757
• − Insurance: −$14,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,000
• − Management: −$24,000
• − Depreciation: −$85,818
• Taxable loss: −$42,571
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,217
• After-tax cash flow: $18,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Washington Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3623580
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $108,016
• Composite: 67.83/100
• National rank: #362
• State rank: #69 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flower Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3270

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,703

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 8% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Current HPI: 288.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+288.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $2,950,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $3,290,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Listed $3,499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,990,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-25 Sold (MLS) $1,990,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-16 Listed $2,095,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-02 Price Changed $2,195,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-02 Listed $2,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-22 Price Changed $2,295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-10 Price Changed $2,450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-26 Price Changed $2,590,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-28 Listed $2,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $2,500,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $890,000 Public Records
• 1988-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $760,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $28,757 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.