17248 Arrow Head Dr

Lockport, IL 60441

$349,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,856 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$492
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-99/mo
• Annual: $-1,185/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (12.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#116 in IL, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D, amenities D-.
• Lockport Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #153 of 620 in IL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William J Butler School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #267 of 2,056 statewide, top 15%, 443 students, 0% FRL); Homer Jr High School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #49 of 665 statewide, top 7%, 843 students, 0% FRL); Lockport Township High Sch East (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #117 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 3,872 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.