17248 Arrow Head Dr · Lockport, IL 60441

$349,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,856 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1997 2,000 sqft lot Est $364k · at est. $200/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very rare find! End unit, 3 bedroom with a loft, full finished basement. So much space! Great location! Walking distance to the tee box at Arrowhead golf course! Get your steps in along the picturesque Arrowhead walking trail! Country club living at an affordable residential price. Near schools, shopping, restaurants, easy interstate access. Immediate possession, all appliances stay. easy to show! Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• End unit
• $200 HOA
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• END UNIT
• FULL FINISHED BASEMENT
• PICTURESQUE WALKING TRAIL
• EASY INTERSTATE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 4-unit building; School bus service available
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $200; Association covers insurance, exterior maintenance, lawn care, and snow removal; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted; max pet weight listed as 999)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces (total 2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached single property; Two-story townhouse; Entry level at grade (level 1); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Estimated age 26–30 years; Not rebuilt and not a pre-1978 build
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 25 x 80

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (master on second level; additional bedrooms on second level)
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and most bedrooms; Vinyl flooring in kitchen, dining room, and laundry
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Seven total rooms; All windows have treatments (where specified)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#116 in IL, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D, amenities D-.
• Lockport Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #153 of 620 in IL (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William J Butler School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #267 of 2,056 statewide, top 15%, 443 students, 0% FRL); Homer Jr High School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #49 of 665 statewide, top 7%, 843 students, 0% FRL); Lockport Township High Sch East (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #117 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 3,872 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,028 units permitted in Will County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Will County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $307,351 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16414 Willow Walk Dr	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,760 (-5%)	4mo	$345,000	$196	72
17259 Long Bow Dr	0.03mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,660 (-11%)	3mo	$330,000	$199	70
16418 Willow Walk Dr #16418	0.30mi	3/3.5	1,760 (-5%)	5mo	$345,000	$196	69
17426 Tanglewood Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (-3%)	2mo	$285,000	$158	68
16530 Willow Walk Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-7%)	5mo	$350,000	$203	66
16559 Willow Walk Dr	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,747 (-6%)	5mo	$330,000	$189	63
16704 W Natoma Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,704 (-8%)	1mo	$315,000	$185	62
17437 Yakima Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,099 (+13%)	3mo	$315,000	$150	58
17634 S Alta Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,650 (-11%)	2mo	$328,000	$199	57
16148 Golfview Dr	0.29mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,590 (-14%)	0mo	$309,900	$195	54
16224 Golfview Dr	0.30mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,590 (-14%)	1mo	$325,000	$204	53
17694 S Gilbert Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,650 (-11%)	4mo	$320,000	$194	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.91% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-60,036
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-48,048
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60441

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,154/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,199

Max offer price $332,454

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $0	+0% $-99	+5% $-198	+10% $-297
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-220	+0% $-99	+5% $23	+10% $144
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $-10	base $-99	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17419 Yakima Dr Unit 17419 Lockport, IL	2.0	2.0	1588	$3,200	$2.02	3d	1	0.18mi
16704 W Natoma Dr Lockport, IL	3.0	3.0	1704	$3,200	$1.88	14d	1	0.40mi
17215 S Juniper Dr Lockport, IL	2.0	2.0	1500	$3,149	$2.10	0d	3	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $349,900 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 433-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $349,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,154 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,048 · $504/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,895/yr (+$158/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$4,154
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,951
• − Management: −$2,951
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$7,101
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,704
• After-tax cash flow: $519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1723350
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,994
• Composite: 33.5/100
• National rank: #5440
• State rank: #153 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #116
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute D Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, IL
• County: Will County · 412,448 people
• City population: 36,844
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 36,844
• Household income: $103,374
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Will County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 705,368 people
• By 2030: 708,154 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 702,692 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 680,249 · -3.6%
• By 2075: 611,990 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 516,215 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Will

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.1% · R 48.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+8.3 2016: D+5.7 2012: D+3.7 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.43%
• Current HPI: 201.5857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.91%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $349,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,154 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.