500 Fir St

Bieber, CA 96009

$54,700B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$287
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $687/mo
• Annual: $8,239/yr
• Cap rate: 21.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.80%
• DSCR: 3.39
• 1% rule: 2.50%
• Cash to close: $15,316

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $209 of equity ($378 loan paydown + $-169 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#813 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Big Valley Joint Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,113 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.