500 Fir St · Bieber, CA 96009

$54,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1978 0.33 ac lot $37/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity awaits you in Bieber, CA. Home appears to have approx. 1,460 sq. ft. Sits on a good size lot of 14,374 sq. ft. If you blink it will be SOLD at this price. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 143 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#813 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Big Valley Joint Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,113 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $209 of equity ($378 loan paydown + $-169 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,136 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.80%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,191
• List price: $54,700
• Delta: -66.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $41,375
• Equity at exit: $15,046

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $98,764
• Equity at exit: $17,430

Cash invested: $15,316 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96009

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$287
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $500

Max offer price $54,700

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $718	-5% $702	+0% $687	+5% $671	+10% $656
Rent	-10% $578	-5% $633	+0% $687	+5% $741	+10% $795
Rate	-1.0pp $714	-0.5pp $701	base $687	+0.5pp $672	+1.0pp $658

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,675
• Closing costs: $1,641
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $54,700 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,700 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,700 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,700 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,700 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $54,700 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,700 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $54,700 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $74,500 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Amazing opportunity awaits you in Bieber, CA. Home appears to have approx. 1,460 sq. ft. Sits on a good size lot of 14,374 sq. ft. If you blink it will be SOLD at this price. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

18. 2026-04-17
    price $78,600 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Amazing opportunity awaits you in Bieber, CA. Home appears to have approx. 1,460 sq. ft. Sits on a good size lot of 14,374 sq. ft. If you blink it will be SOLD at this price. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

19. 2026-03-31
    price $84,100 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Amazing opportunity awaits you in Bieber, CA. Home appears to have approx. 1,460 sq. ft. Sits on a good size lot of 14,374 sq. ft. If you blink it will be SOLD at this price. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

20. 2026-03-02
    price $95,200 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Amazing opportunity awaits you in Bieber, CA. Home appears to have approx. 1,460 sq. ft. Sits on a good size lot of 14,374 sq. ft. If you blink it will be SOLD at this price. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

21. 2026-02-12
    price $119,100 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Amazing opportunity awaits you in Bieber, CA. Home appears to have approx. 1,460 sq. ft. Sits on a good size lot of 14,374 sq. ft. If you blink it will be SOLD at this price. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

22. 2026-01-26
    listed $143,100 Active 278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (278 chars)

    Amazing opportunity awaits you in Bieber, CA. Home appears to have approx. 1,460 sq. ft. Sits on a good size lot of 14,374 sq. ft. If you blink it will be SOLD at this price. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

23. 2002-09-03
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,064
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$1,591
• Taxable income: $7,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,883
• After-tax cash flow: $6,356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Valley Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0605010
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $45,860
• Composite: 26.64/100
• National rank: #12589
• State rank: #1113 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bieber

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #813
• US rank: #22934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment D+ Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bieber, CA
• Population (ZIP): 380

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 28% Italian 5% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Current HPI: 150.8107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+16.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $74,500 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $78,600 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $84,100 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $95,200 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $119,100 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $143,100 San Francisco MLS
• 2002-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.