3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,194 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 8 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,492/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$252
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$313
Net cashflow
$62/mo
Annual
$747/yr
Cap rate
6.75%
Cash-on-cash
1.62%
DSCR
1.07
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$46,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($747/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (9.5% below list).
Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $149k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#349 in PA, #3,056 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
Red Lion Area SD (suburban): math 36% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #282 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mazie Gable El Sch (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,116 of 1,518 statewide, top 74%, 523 students, 73% FRL); Red Lion Area Jhs (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #313 of 512 statewide, top 62%, 813 students, 50% FRL); Red Lion Area Shs (math 63% / reading 24%, grade F, #211 of 437 statewide, top 48%, 1,432 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 28% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $102k; list at $165k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in Red Lion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-9018S6AVC871XH
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29