557 Shun Pike Rd

Keeseville, NY 12944

$189,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,001/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$340
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $249/mo
• Annual: $2,990/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#673 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $189k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.8% in Keeseville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.