557 Shun Pike Rd · Keeseville, NY 12944

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1980 1.74 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live on a quiet road and yet within a minute from the highway! This 3 bedroom ranch comes with a 2 car garage, an insulated/heated shop area & a car port/woodshed area. There are 2 wood stoves and one masonry fireplace to supplement the heat! You will love the living room with the cathedral ceilings and the wooden beams, the masonry fireplace standing between two sets of large windows, and the hard wood floors. Also enjoy a back porch with plenty of natural light, and a walk out basement to be used as a playroom, a den, a hobby area, or even a 4th bedroom. There is even a small pond for the avid nature enthusiast.

Key facts

• Enclosed back porch
• Private lot
• Masonry fireplace

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• MASONRY FIREPLACE
• BONUS ROOM
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• ENCLOSED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Driveway with gravel
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; 200+ amp electric service; Cable available and electricity connected
• Home design: Single family house; One level / single-story; Walk-out entry from basement; Has a view
• Construction: Finished basement areas (crawl space, finished, full); Basement with walk-out access
• Exterior features: Private yard; Playground; Enclosed rear porch; Chain link fenced back yard; Shed(s); Wooded, sloped lot with many trees and rolling slopes; Paved road access; Walk-out basement

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Kerosene heating; Propane heating; Other heating sources; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fans; Vaulted ceilings; Wood-framed windows; Living room masonry wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in hall on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.8% in Keeseville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#673 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Ausable Valley Central School District (rural): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #474 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 218 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Essex County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $189k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,165 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-14,713
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $7,807
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12944

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,137/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,685

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $189,000 Active
4. 2018-10-10
   soldstatus $83,900
5. 2018-10-04
   soldstatus $83,900 629-char remark

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   Live on a quiet road and yet within a minute from the highway! This 3 bedroom ranch comes with a 2 car garage, an insulated/heated shop area & a car port/woodshed area. There are 2 wood stoves and one masonry fireplace to supplement the heat! You will love the living room with the cathedral ceilings and the wooden beams, the masonry fireplace standing between two sets of large windows, and the hard wood floors. Also enjoy a back porch with plenty of natural light, and a walk out basement to be used as a playroom, a den, a hobby area, or even a 4th bedroom. There is even a small pond for the avid nature enthusiast.

6. 2018-06-04
   listed $87,900 629-char remark

   Show marketing remark (629 chars)

   Live on a quiet road and yet within a minute from the highway! This 3 bedroom ranch comes with a 2 car garage, an insulated/heated shop area & a car port/woodshed area. There are 2 wood stoves and one masonry fireplace to supplement the heat! You will love the living room with the cathedral ceilings and the wooden beams, the masonry fireplace standing between two sets of large windows, and the hard wood floors. Also enjoy a back porch with plenty of natural light, and a walk out basement to be used as a playroom, a den, a hobby area, or even a 4th bedroom. There is even a small pond for the avid nature enthusiast.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,137 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,166 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$3,137
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$0
• After-tax cash flow: $2,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ausable Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616170
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $50,989
• Composite: 37.43/100
• National rank: #4417
• State rank: #474 of 590 in NY

Livability — Keeseville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #12604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,043

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,758 people
• By 2030: 35,697 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 32,697 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 29,248 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 22,641 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 16,602 · -54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 49.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 13.3pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+5.0 2016: R+3.4 2012: D+15.0 2008: D+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.79%
• Current HPI: 220.0385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — ACVMLS
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — ACVMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $189,000 ACVMLS
• 2018-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $83,900 Public Records
• 2018-10-04 Sold (MLS) $83,900 ACVMLS
• 2018-06-04 Listed $87,900 ACVMLS

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,137 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.