14751 Quail Grove Cir

Oregon City, OR 97045

$212,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1988 · Manufactured · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,651/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax + insurance: −$353
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-161/mo
• Annual: $-1,932/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $59,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $212k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in OR, #271 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Redland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 496 students, 27% FRL); Tumwata Middle School (math 11% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 128 statewide, top 90%, 654 students, 34% FRL); Oregon City Senior High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 1,931 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Oregon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.