14751 Quail Grove Cir · Oregon City, OR 97045

$212,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 57 Days on market

Built 1988 Good condition $177/sqft · 22% above area Est $174k · 22% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in highly desired Country Village Estates with affordable space rent and shop in the fenced backyard. One of the nicest manufactured homes that feels stick built. One level home, open floor plan, many recent updates and improvements. Recent updates include: double pane vinyl windows, LVP flooring throughout, gourmet kitchen, quartz countertops and backsplash, crown moulding cabinets, undermount sink, kitchen appliances, pantry cabinets in laundry, fresh paint inside and out. Gourmet kitchen is a showstopper, with quartz counters, under mount sink and abundance of storage in the soft close crown moulding cabinets. Vaulted living and dining room with easy access to the covered patio a

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DOUBLE PANE VINYL WINDOWS
• LVP FLOORING
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CROWN MOULDING CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manufacturer: AMMAN; Main level area approximately 1,200 (tax) living area; Lot rent amount is charged monthly
• Financial info: Monthly lot rent
• HOA & community: Park amenities include commons area, managed community, road maintenance and sewer (Country Village Estates)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Security: Handicap access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (fuel); Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (not attached); Main-level living; Territorial and trees/woods view
• Construction: Built in 1988; Cement siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Porch; Fenced yard; Garden; Outbuilding; Tool shed; Yard; Level lot with trees; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Quartz countertops; Eat bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with private bathroom, walk-in closet and laminate flooring; Second bedroom on main level with closet and laminate flooring; Third bedroom on main level with closet and laminate flooring
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Luxury vinyl tile; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Accessible approach with ramp and accessible hallways; Garage on main level; Utility room on main level; Vinyl window frames; Crawl space; Updated/remodeled condition
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $212k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $212k).
• Recommended offer: $206k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.7% in Oregon City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#12 in OR, #271 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Oregon City SD 62 (suburban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #40 of 58 in OR (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Redland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #263 of 412 statewide, top 68%, 496 students, 27% FRL); Tumwata Middle School (math 11% / reading 37%, grade F, #115 of 128 statewide, top 90%, 654 students, 34% FRL); Oregon City Senior High School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 1,931 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $205,640 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.62%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,713
• List price: $212,000
• Delta: 22.04%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14930 Heather Glen Dr #64	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	8mo	$140,000	$108	72
18147 S Treetop Dr #147	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+4%)	10mo	$179,900	$144	68
18205 S Silverwood Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	13mo	$159,000	$129	67
14949 S Fox Pointe Dr #320	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-1%)	15mo	$165,000	$139	65
15130 S Maplelane Rd #51	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	10mo	$112,647	$98	61
14929 S Plum Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+12%)	5mo	$169,999	$126	60
14983 S Brookfield Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+3%)	10mo	$219,985	$179	59
17925 Country Village Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+4%)	9mo	$195,000	$157	56
18153 Country Village Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	10mo	$78,000	$60	56
14939 S Fox Pointe Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	18mo	$180,000	$139	51
14830 S Appleton Dr #144	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	20mo	$205,000	$153	50
18198 S Silverwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	12mo	$155,000	$115	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,745
• Equity at exit: $31,610

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-17,531
• Equity at exit: $18,330

Cash invested: $59,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97045

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,144 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$265 /mo · $3,180/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,855

Max offer price $212,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $375	-5% $302	+0% $229	+5% $155	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $144	+0% $229	+5% $313	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $282	base $229	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,000
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14338 S Maple Lane Ct Oregon City, OR	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,000	$2.01	0d	14	0.38mi
14378 Walnut Grove Way Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,595	$2.56	0d	24	0.45mi
14155 S Beavercreek Rd Unit 222 Oregon City, OR	2.0	2.0	916	$1,700	$1.86	25d	1	0.63mi
14155 S Beavercreek Rd Unit 243 Oregon City, OR	2.0	2.0	916	$1,575	$1.72	25d	1	0.64mi
14155 Beavercreek Rd Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,975	$2.25	0d	4	0.64mi
14155 Beavercreek Rd Apt 235 Oregon City, OR	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,995	$1.73	25d	1	0.64mi
15150 Gifford Ln Oregon City, OR	2.0	2.0	1073	$2,449	$2.28	16d	1	1.31mi
19839 Highway 213 Oregon City, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,918	$2.22	0d	13	1.43mi
1026 Prospect St Oregon City, OR	2.0	2.0	1074	$2,450	$2.28	13d	1	1.45mi
1024 Prospect St Oregon City, OR	3.0	1.0	1280	$2,075	$1.62	45d	1	1.46mi
418 Hilda St Oregon City, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,645	$1.65	4d	2	1.47mi
775 Cascade St Oregon City, OR	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,670	$1.66	4d	13	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $212,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $212,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $219,000 Active 1234-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,726
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,875
• − Property taxes: −$3,180
• − Insurance: −$1,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,058
• − Management: −$2,058
• − Depreciation: −$6,167
• Taxable loss: −$673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$161
• After-tax cash flow: $2,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment with potential for further value enhancement through minor cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz — Quartz countertops are durable and aesthetically pleasing
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz — Quartz countertops are durable and aesthetically pleasing ↑
• Resale Install new flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oregon City SD 62
• NCES district ID: 4109330
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $64,272
• Composite: 26.65/100
• National rank: #7169
• State rank: #40 of 58 in OR

Livability — Oregon City

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #271

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 57,526
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 57,526
• Household income: $103,573
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -624.55%
• Current HPI: 301.9661
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $212,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $219,000 RMLS