201 Bristol Cmn

Williamsburg, VA 23188

$299,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,177/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,229/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (27.4% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $218k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Williamsburg-James City Public School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #36 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10 units permitted in Williamsburg city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamsburg County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.