201 Bristol Cmn · Williamsburg, VA 23188

$299,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,159 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2001

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Carefree first floor living in this move-in ready 2 bedroom, 2 bath condominium. Located in Bristol Commons community in Williamsburg. Unit is uniquely situated near College of William & Mary campus, New Town, and High Street shopping, dining, and entertainment venues. Unit includes furnished primary suite and living room. New HVAC system, new appliances (refrigerator, dishwasher), range, microwave, washer and dryer. New kitchen sink and faucet, new bathroom faucets, and upgraded lighting throughout. Closet Maid shelving throughout. Storm door with locking mechanism opens to private patio. Convenient/easy access to Reserved parking and clubhouse. Original owner. Unit was well maintain

Key facts

• First floor living
• New appliances
• Private patio area

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LIVING
• FURNISHED PRIMARY SUITE
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW KITCHEN SINK
• PRIVATE PATIO AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Associa Community Group); Monthly association fee of $225; Association covers management, clubhouse, common areas, structure maintenance, snow removal, trash, and water; Community features include common grounds and a clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Asphalt shingle roof; Drywall and frame construction with HardiPlank-type siding
• Construction: Built (year type): Actual
• Exterior features: Patio; Guest house; Smoke detector(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Range hood; Stove
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dining area; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Dryer; Electric water heater; Exhaust fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Williamsburg-James City Public School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #36 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10 units permitted in Williamsburg city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamsburg County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,737 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-56,266
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-62,052
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23188

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,499/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $281,807

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $67	-5% $-18	+0% $-102	+5% $-187	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-188	+0% $-102	+5% $-16	+10% $70
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-26	base $-102	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Bristol Cmn Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1159	$2,100	$1.81	2d	1	0.02mi
155 Sterling Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1588	$2,404	$1.51	2d	13	0.14mi
150 Kings Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1295	$2,846	$2.20	2d	23	0.20mi
1400 Middle St Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	686	$1,565	$2.28	2d	1	0.31mi
4375 New Town Ave Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1141	$2,765	$2.42	2d	15	0.63mi
100 Whitworth Way Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,103	$2.18	2d	14	0.66mi
109 Stratford Dr Unit H Williamsburg, VA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,500	$1.55	44d	1	0.93mi
103 E Windsor Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,650	$1.48	45d	1	0.98mi
3873 Strawberry Plains Rd Unit B Williamsburg, VA	1.0	1.0	714	$1,500	$2.10	13d	1	1.44mi
5302 Lane Place Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,675	$1.92	2d	7	1.45mi
5302 Lane Place Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$1,738	$1.62	17d	5	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   listing id $299,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $299,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $299,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$961/yr (+$80/mo · 64.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,499
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsburg-James City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104020
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $49,497
• Composite: 56.37/100
• National rank: #1163
• State rank: #36 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsburg, VA
• County: James City County · 45,803 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 45,803
• Household income: $103,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Williamsburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,784 people
• By 2030: 22,731 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 26,175 · +25.9%
• By 2050: 29,939 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 39,953 · +92.2%
• By 2100: 49,884 · +140.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamsburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.5) · D 71.5% · R 27.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.4pp toward D · 2008: 29.1pp · 2024: 44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.5 2020: D+41.1 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+28.8 2008: D+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.65%
• Current HPI: 226.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $299,900 WMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,499 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.