5441 Bussell Rd

Stebbins, CA 93314

$340,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,512/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$487
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,428/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (26.1% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $251k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rio Bravo-Greeley Union Elementary (rural): math 32% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #196 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rio Bravo Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #463 of 1,571 statewide, top 30%, 596 students, 48% FRL); Rio Bravo-Greeley Elementary (math 27% / reading 49%, grade F, #162 of 498 statewide, top 33%, 414 students, 52% FRL); Liberty High (reading 90%, 2,358 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 269 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.