5441 Bussell Rd · Stebbins, CA 93314

$340,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2022 0.25 ac lot $266/sqft · 22% below area Est $435k · 22% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Looking for country living * * Not far from the city. Only one of its kind! Wonderful 3 bedrooms, 2-bathroom new construction 1280sqft plan home in Northwest of Bakersfield. Home offers charming kitchen with open concept and beautiful counters neutral modern relaxing interior colors that can fit with any furniture design. Standard amenities: include energy-efficient kitchen appliances, a tankless water heater, including the refrigerator, blinds and ceiling fans in every room and Bedrooms walls are already wired to hang your flat screens, indoor laundry and with RV hook ups parking in the backyard. LARGE over-sized lot about 10,890 sq. ft plenty of play area for the kids and great for entertaining! Ready to design your dream yard. Take advantage of USDA financing.

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Huge lot
• Chicken coop

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ZONED FOR LARGE ANIMALS
• CHICKEN COOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; RV space (dimensions TBD)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Shared well
• Home design: Vacant
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front automatic sprinklers; Has RV space

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central A/C
• Interior features: Formal living room; Range/Oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Central A/C; Central heat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Rio Bravo-Greeley Union Elementary (rural): math 32% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #196 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rio Bravo Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #463 of 1,571 statewide, top 30%, 596 students, 48% FRL); Rio Bravo-Greeley Elementary (math 27% / reading 49%, grade F, #162 of 498 statewide, top 33%, 414 students, 52% FRL); Liberty High (reading 90%, 2,358 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 269 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,221 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.60%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,751
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -21.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5616 Banning St	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (+10%)	3mo	$450,000	$320	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-80,660
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-122,159
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93314

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,147/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,874

Max offer price $289,541

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-189	+0% $-286	+5% $-382	+10% $-478
Rent	-10% $-484	-5% $-385	+0% $-286	+5% $-186	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-199	base $-286	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $340,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $340,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $340,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $340,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $340,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $340,000 Active 872-char remark
17. 2022-10-26
    soldstatus $300,000 Sold 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    * * Looking for country living * * Not far from the city. Only one of its kind! Wonderful 3 bedrooms, 2-bathroom new construction 1280sqft plan home in Northwest of Bakersfield. Home offers charming kitchen with open concept and beautiful counters neutral modern relaxing interior colors that can fit with any furniture design. Standard amenities: include energy-efficient kitchen appliances, a tankless water heater, including the refrigerator, blinds and ceiling fans in every room and Bedrooms walls are already wired to hang your flat screens, indoor laundry and with RV hook ups parking in the backyard. LARGE over-sized lot about 10,890 sq. ft plenty of play area for the kids and great for entertaining! Ready to design your dream yard. Take advantage of USDA financing.

18. 2022-08-02
    status Pending 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    * * Looking for country living * * Not far from the city. Only one of its kind! Wonderful 3 bedrooms, 2-bathroom new construction 1280sqft plan home in Northwest of Bakersfield. Home offers charming kitchen with open concept and beautiful counters neutral modern relaxing interior colors that can fit with any furniture design. Standard amenities: include energy-efficient kitchen appliances, a tankless water heater, including the refrigerator, blinds and ceiling fans in every room and Bedrooms walls are already wired to hang your flat screens, indoor laundry and with RV hook ups parking in the backyard. LARGE over-sized lot about 10,890 sq. ft plenty of play area for the kids and great for entertaining! Ready to design your dream yard. Take advantage of USDA financing.

19. 2022-07-29
    price $300,000 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    * * Looking for country living * * Not far from the city. Only one of its kind! Wonderful 3 bedrooms, 2-bathroom new construction 1280sqft plan home in Northwest of Bakersfield. Home offers charming kitchen with open concept and beautiful counters neutral modern relaxing interior colors that can fit with any furniture design. Standard amenities: include energy-efficient kitchen appliances, a tankless water heater, including the refrigerator, blinds and ceiling fans in every room and Bedrooms walls are already wired to hang your flat screens, indoor laundry and with RV hook ups parking in the backyard. LARGE over-sized lot about 10,890 sq. ft plenty of play area for the kids and great for entertaining! Ready to design your dream yard. Take advantage of USDA financing.

20. 2022-07-12
    price $350,000 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    * * Looking for country living * * Not far from the city. Only one of its kind! Wonderful 3 bedrooms, 2-bathroom new construction 1280sqft plan home in Northwest of Bakersfield. Home offers charming kitchen with open concept and beautiful counters neutral modern relaxing interior colors that can fit with any furniture design. Standard amenities: include energy-efficient kitchen appliances, a tankless water heater, including the refrigerator, blinds and ceiling fans in every room and Bedrooms walls are already wired to hang your flat screens, indoor laundry and with RV hook ups parking in the backyard. LARGE over-sized lot about 10,890 sq. ft plenty of play area for the kids and great for entertaining! Ready to design your dream yard. Take advantage of USDA financing.

21. 2022-06-15
    listed $360,000 Active 779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (779 chars)

    * * Looking for country living * * Not far from the city. Only one of its kind! Wonderful 3 bedrooms, 2-bathroom new construction 1280sqft plan home in Northwest of Bakersfield. Home offers charming kitchen with open concept and beautiful counters neutral modern relaxing interior colors that can fit with any furniture design. Standard amenities: include energy-efficient kitchen appliances, a tankless water heater, including the refrigerator, blinds and ceiling fans in every room and Bedrooms walls are already wired to hang your flat screens, indoor laundry and with RV hook ups parking in the backyard. LARGE over-sized lot about 10,890 sq. ft plenty of play area for the kids and great for entertaining! Ready to design your dream yard. Take advantage of USDA financing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,147 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,147 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$4,147
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,412
• − Management: −$2,412
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$9,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Bravo-Greeley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0632710
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $82,715
• Composite: 37.97/100
• National rank: #4297
• State rank: #196 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stebbins

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stebbins, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,407
• Household income: $126,250
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Asian 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.45%
• Current HPI: 337.4819
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $340,000 GEMLS
• 2022-10-26 Sold (MLS) $300,000 GEMLS
• 2022-08-02 Pending — GEMLS
• 2022-07-29 Price Changed $300,000 GEMLS
• 2022-07-12 Price Changed $350,000 GEMLS
• 2022-06-15 Listed $360,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+38.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,147 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.