307 Lake St

Sidney, OH 45365

$100,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,716 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $454/mo
• Annual: $5,449/yr
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.46%
• DSCR: 1.87
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in OH, #3,412 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities D.
• Sidney City (town): math 46% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #454 of 656 in OH (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Early Childhood Center (251 students, 0% FRL); Sidney Middle School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade C, #421 of 654 statewide, top 65%, 840 students, 60% FRL); Sidney High School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #493 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 826 students, 55% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 337 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $100k implies a 456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.0% in Sidney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.