307 Lake St · Sidney, OH 45365

$100,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 2,613 sqft lot Est $156k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity for someone looking for a total rehab project. Roll up your sleeves and start the process. House has been gutted and seller will leave materials and some additional fixtures from another location if desired. Like a blank slate, you can mold it to your own needs and expectations. Seller could even let you know what he had envisioned for it to make it a wonderful investment property to reap the profits of good rental income.

Key facts

• 2,613 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 4.0% in Sidney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in OH, #3,412 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities D.
• Sidney City (town): math 46% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #454 of 656 in OH (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whittier Early Childhood Center (251 students, 0% FRL); Sidney Middle School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade C, #421 of 654 statewide, top 65%, 840 students, 60% FRL); Sidney High School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #493 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 826 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 337 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $100k implies a 456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.46%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
834 N West Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,687 (-2%)	3mo	$125,000	$74	72
804 N Miami Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,606 (-6%)	5mo	$200,000	$125	71
120 Bon Air	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+4%)	2mo	$249,900	$141	68
527 Linden Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,680 (-2%)	1mo	$162,000	$96	64
512 Sycamore Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,718 (+0%)	5mo	$104,000	$61	62
808 N Main Ave	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,476 (-14%)	1mo	$160,000	$108	61
220 S Franklin	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,596 (-7%)	1mo	$42,000	$26	58
109 E Water St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,816 (+6%)	5mo	$82,250	$45	53
619 Michigan St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,840 (+7%)	5mo	$205,000	$111	48
131 Mound St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,886 (+10%)	3mo	$72,450	$38	46
705 Michigan St	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+5%)	6mo	$95,100	$53	46
1314 N Main Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,488 (-13%)	6mo	$135,000	$91	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $12,675
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $48,104
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45365

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,319 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $261/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $511	-5% $482	+0% $454	+5% $426	+10% $398
Rent	-10% $350	-5% $402	+0% $454	+5% $506	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $504	-0.5pp $480	base $454	+0.5pp $428	+1.0pp $402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Thompson St Sidney, OH	3.0	1.0	1352	$1,200	$0.89	4d	1	0.65mi
1402 N Main Ave Sidney, OH	3.0	1.0	1544	$1,300	$0.84	14d	1	0.72mi
803 S Main Ave Sidney, OH	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.87mi
803 S Main Ave Sidney, OH	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,030	$0.93	4d	1	0.87mi
805 S Main Ave Sidney, OH	3.0	1.0	1423	$1,400	$0.98	23d	1	0.87mi
1146 Morris Ave Sidney, OH	3.0	1.0	1154	$1,300	$1.13	4d	1	1.20mi
1550 Knights Way Sidney, OH	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,195	$0.98	16d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $100,000 Active
3. 2023-04-21
   soldstatus $18,000
4. 2000-07-17
   soldstatus $85,500
5. 1996-08-15
   soldstatus $78,500
6. 1990-10-05
   soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $261 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $910 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$650/yr (+$54/mo · 249.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$261
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,266
• − Management: −$1,266
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $4,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sidney City
• NCES district ID: 3910003
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,974
• Composite: 41.55/100
• National rank: #3443
• State rank: #454 of 656 in OH

Livability — Sidney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3412

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sidney, OH
• County: Shelby · 44,840 people
• City population: 28,955
• Population (ZIP): 28,955
• Household income: $66,044
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.7

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,264 people
• By 2030: 45,935 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 42,786 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 38,981 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 30,225 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 21,273 · -55.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.8) · D 17.2% · R 82.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -36.4pp · 2024: -64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.8 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+60.6 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+36.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.62%
• Current HPI: 264.4532
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+85.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — WRIST
• 2026-03-17 Listed $100,000 WRIST
• 2023-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2000-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records
• 1996-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 1990-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $261 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.