14269 Southland Dr

Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$259,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-238/mo
• Annual: $-2,852/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (37.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (37.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big Sandy Elementary (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #171 of 627 statewide, top 31%, 480 students, 54% FRL); Duncanville Middle School (math 18% / reading 51%, grade F, #90 of 257 statewide, top 38%, 463 students, 65% FRL); Hillcrest High School (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 1,356 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 45% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.