7215 Maplehurst Dr

Jasmine Estates, FL 34668

$259,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $6/mo
• Annual: $76/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($76/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 577 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $260k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Jasmine Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,946/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 2699% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.