3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,005 sqft ·
Built 1943
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,305/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,253
Tax + insurance
−$464
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$484
Net cashflow
$103/mo
Annual
$1,239/yr
Cap rate
6.81%
Cash-on-cash
1.85%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$66,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (3.6% below list).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#505 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Round Lake CUSD 116 (suburban): math 7% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #560 of 620 in IL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Indian Hill Elem School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,259 of 2,056 statewide, top 62%, 445 students, 0% FRL); Round Lake Middle School (math 5% / reading 11%, grade F, #608 of 665 statewide, top 92%, 804 students, 0% FRL); Round Lake Senior High School (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #522 of 693 statewide, top 76%, 2,258 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 67% district-wide (67 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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