4454 Hillcrest Dr

Bellbrook, OH 45305

$256,000D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,421 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,134/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-142/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $71,680

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $256k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-142/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (16.6% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $213k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#134 in OH, #1,892 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bellbrook-Sugarcreek Local (suburban): math 79% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #45 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bell Creek Intermediate School (math 80% / reading 75%, grade A, #213 of 1,584 statewide, top 14%, 628 students, 12% FRL); Bellbrook Middle School (math 81% / reading 80%, grade A+, #41 of 654 statewide, top 7%, 612 students, 13% FRL); Bellbrook High School (math 72% / reading 83%, grade A-, #52 of 781 statewide, top 7%, 863 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $256k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Bellbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.