4454 Hillcrest Dr · Bellbrook, OH 45305

$256,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1967 0.27 ac lot Est $288k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brick ranch offers 1,421 square feet of living space on a single floor and is situated on a 0.27-acre lot characterized by mature trees and a private, fenced backyard. The home currently features a two-bedroom layout, though it can easily be converted back to a three-bedroom configuration. There is one full bathroom and one half bathroom. Key updates include a renovated kitchen and a remodeled main bathroom. The kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, updated cabinetry providing ample storage, and durable luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring. The kitchen area flows into a formal dining room and a converted single-car garage that now serves as additional living space. The primary bed

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Renovated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• REMODELED MAIN BATHROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached two-car garage with garage door opener and storage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Public water; Sewer available; Cable available
• Home design: One-story brick home; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Water softener; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (sizes: 10 x 9, 10 x 10, 13 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Whole-house fan; Forced-air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (5 x 5)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-142/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Bellbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#134 in OH, #1,892 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bellbrook-Sugarcreek Local (suburban): math 79% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #45 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bell Creek Intermediate School (math 80% / reading 75%, grade A, #213 of 1,584 statewide, top 14%, 628 students, 12% FRL); Bellbrook Middle School (math 81% / reading 80%, grade A+, #41 of 654 statewide, top 7%, 612 students, 13% FRL); Bellbrook High School (math 72% / reading 83%, grade A-, #52 of 781 statewide, top 7%, 863 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 12% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 797 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (148 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $256k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,442 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,463
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4454 Hillcrest Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,421 (0%)	0mo	$256,000	$180	95
2187 Tampico Trl	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,411 (-1%)	2mo	$251,900	$179	86
2219 Bradley Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (-0%)	1mo	$280,000	$198	81
4264 Bellemead Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (-0%)	0mo	$300,000	$212	79
4330 Bellemead Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,255 (-12%)	4mo	$288,000	$229	65
4200 Sugarcreek Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,416 (-0%)	0mo	$288,000	$203	64
2006 S Linda Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,406 (-1%)	7mo	$314,900	$224	60
2213 S Lakeman Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,599 (+12%)	0mo	$340,000	$213	57
2298 S Lakeman Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,606 (+13%)	8mo	$289,900	$181	47
1860 Bledsoe Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-12%)	2mo	$319,000	$256	42
1813 Bledsoe Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (+14%)	1mo	$275,000	$170	39
1900 N Belleview Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (+12%)	3mo	$305,000	$191	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-42,246
• Equity at exit: $38,170

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,802
• Equity at exit: $22,134

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45305

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,986/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,149

Max offer price $253,915

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $61	+0% $-12	+5% $-84	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-96	+0% $-12	+5% $73	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $53	base $-12	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4208 Bellemead Dr Bellbrook, OH	3.0	1.5	1416	$1,995	$1.41	4d	1	0.35mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,850	$1.73	25d	1	1.00mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Unit NA Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,725	$1.65	4d	1	1.00mi
6591 Brigham Sq #7 Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,500	$1.39	23d	1	1.28mi
6620 Green Branch Dr #4 Centerville, OH	2.0	2.0	987	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-10
   price $256,000
3. 2026-05-08
   listed $240,000 Active
4. 1990-07-27
   soldstatus $82,500
5. 1987-08-19
   soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,986 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,490 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: +$504/yr (+$42/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$2,986
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable loss: −$4,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellbrook-Sugarcreek Local
• NCES district ID: 3904727
• Math proficiency: 79% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $87,482
• Composite: 70.01/100
• National rank: #280
• State rank: #45 of 656 in OH

Livability — Bellbrook

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #1892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellbrook, OH
• County: Greene · 199,376 people
• City population: 11,597
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH
• Population (ZIP): 11,597
• Household income: $119,129
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 6.3

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,301 people
• By 2030: 171,840 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 171,408 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 167,806 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 154,430 · -9.3%
• By 2100: 138,669 · -18.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.5% · R 59.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.57%
• Current HPI: 262.7851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+250.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $256,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $240,000 Dayton MLS
• 1990-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records
• 1987-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,986 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.