12555 Timber Creek Dr Unit 8

Carmel, IN 46032

$227,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · Built 1989 · Condo · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,319/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,195
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$244
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $146/mo
• Annual: $1,752/yr
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.75%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $63,812

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $228k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $228k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Carmel Elementary School (math 75% / reading 61%, grade B+, #49 of 994 statewide, top 5%, 624 students, 22% FRL); Carmel High School (math 77% / reading 90%, grade A, #3 of 369 statewide, top 1%, 5,192 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.