22 Smith Hill Rd

Airmont, NY 10952

$699,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,270 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax + insurance: −$2,685
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-4,044/mo
• Annual: $-48,528/yr
• Cap rate: -0.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.79%
• DSCR: -0.10
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $195,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $699k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (52.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (58.2% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($615k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (58.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#753 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Suffern Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #242 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cherry Lane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 256 students, 36% FRL); Suffern Middle School (math 30% / reading 56%, grade D-, #370 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 836 students, 38% FRL); Suffern Senior High School (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,486 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 18% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.6% vs local median 1.8% in Airmont — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?