22 Smith Hill Rd · Airmont, NY 10952

$699,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,270 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1966 0.81 ac lot Est $981k · 29% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 22 Smith Hill Rd, centrally located in the heart of Airmont sitting on close to an acre with beautiful curb appeal and landscaping. The first level boasts a sunlit living room and dining room with vaulted ceilings. The kitchen is spacious with plenty pantry space. The enclosed deck is great for summer days. The master bedroom has a walk in closet, sitting area and full bath. There's an additional bedroom and full bathroom. The lower level has two bedrooms, one full bath, living room and office. With a bit of TLC , this home can be a dream home! Additional Information: ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

Key facts

• 0.81 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-49k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (52.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (58.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (58.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.6% vs local median 1.8% in Airmont — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#753 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Suffern Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #242 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cherry Lane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 256 students, 36% FRL); Suffern Middle School (math 30% / reading 56%, grade D-, #370 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 836 students, 38% FRL); Suffern Senior High School (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,486 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 18% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 429 units permitted in Rockland County in 2024 (231 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($615k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,952 (58.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.79%
• DSCR: -0.10
• GRM: 20.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $980,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22 Smith Hill Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,270 (0%)	0mo	$650,000	$286	95
19 Apple Blossom Ct	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,261 (-0%)	6mo	$950,000	$420	74
4 Ayr Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,257 (-1%)	2mo	$1,200,000	$532	62
60 Smith Hill Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,102 (-7%)	10mo	$909,000	$432	55
43 N Lorna Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,125 (-6%)	10mo	$995,000	$468	55
4 Rustic Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,079 (-8%)	12mo	$866,000	$417	54
33 Dawn Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,309 (+2%)	11mo	$1,115,000	$483	53
21 Edgebrook Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,031 (-10%)	5mo	$860,000	$423	53
62 Laura Dr	0.50mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,132 (-6%)	8mo	$999,000	$469	51
22 Thomsen Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,251 (-1%)	16mo	$1,100,000	$489	47
1 Blossom Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,443 (+8%)	12mo	$918,000	$376	45
1 Amanda Ct	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,500 (+10%)	14mo	$999,000	$400	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -71.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.89×
• Total profit: $-369,855
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.32×
• Total profit: $-649,745
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10952

• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 20.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$2,394 /mo · $28,722/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-4,044

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,039

Max offer price $333,743

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-10-30
   soldstatus $650,000
2. 2024-09-17
   status Pending
3. 2024-04-01
   listed $699,000 Active
4. 2024-03-29
   historical $699,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $28,722 · $2,394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $28,722 · $2,394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,034
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$28,722
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,803
• − Management: −$2,803
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$62,278
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,947
• After-tax cash flow: $-33,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffern Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628320
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,871
• Composite: 51.17/100
• National rank: #1758
• State rank: #242 of 590 in NY

Livability — Airmont

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #753
• US rank: #14423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Airmont, NY
• City population: 47,169
• Population (ZIP): 47,169

Population outlook (Rockland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 339,642 people
• By 2030: 345,987 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 357,178 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 362,456 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 367,281 · +8.1%
• By 2100: 328,211 · -3.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 5% Hispanic 5%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · German/W. Germanic 55% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rockland

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -671.35%
• Current HPI: 399.2068
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-01 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-29 Coming Soon $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $28,722 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.