202 Birch Ave

Princeton, NJ 08542

$719,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,236 sqft · Built 1929 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax + insurance: −$1,002
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$971
• Net cashflow: $-1,119/mo
• Annual: $-13,425/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $201,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $719k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $521k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $463k (35.7% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $463k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $71k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $67k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#7 in NJ, #252 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Princeton Public Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 472 in NJ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Community Park School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C, #176 of 1,303 statewide, top 15%, 286 students, 15% FRL); Princeton Middle School (math 47% / reading 75%, grade B+, #37 of 431 statewide, top 9%, 816 students, 14% FRL); Princeton High School (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #54 of 399 statewide, top 14%, 1,532 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $719k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$115k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 0.7% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.