202 Birch Ave · Princeton, NJ 08542

$719,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,236 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1929 3,049 sqft lot Est $680k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SHORT SALE -- Talk about a "Perfect Storm, " if you settle on this house, you get to live in prestigious Princeton, send your students to Princeton's blue ribbon schools, and buy this duplex home at a bargain price! This duplex had the hardwood floors refinished in the Living Room and all three Bedrooms in 2005. Moreover, the Bathrooms, HVAC and Kitchen were updated in 2004. Kitchen with new cabinets, dishwasher, oven, and a ceramic tile floor. The Living Room boasts a floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace and there is a covered concrete front and back porches. The home is sunny and bright and painted in neutral colors and features a private backyard with mature trees, landscaping and a shed. Shed is being sold "As Is. " Within a short walk of Community Park, Downtown Princeton and famous and historic Princeton University.

Key facts

• Unique design
• Twin buildings
• Historic home

Tags

• HISTORIC HOME
• UNIQUE DESIGN
• TWIN BUILDINGS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• BEAUTIFULLY YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Accessible features include lever-handle doors
• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Shared driveway; Asphalt driveway; On-street parking; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available (100 Amp service); Natural gas available; Hot water by natural gas
• Home design: Semi-detached structure; Flat roof; Fee simple ownership; Not in a federal flood zone
• Construction: Aluminum siding and block construction; Brick/mortar and concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Built date sourced from assessor
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Sidewalks; Street lights; Exterior lighting; BBQ grill; Community pool; Front yard, rear yard and side yards; Trees/wooded; Level and irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Self-cleaning oven; Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Energy-efficient appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; Rooms include living room, master bedroom, two additional bedrooms, kitchen, and attic
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first upper level); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Master bathroom(s); Stall shower; Eat-in kitchen; Full, unfinished and improved basement; Bay/Bow windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $719k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $521k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $463k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $463k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 0.7% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#7 in NJ, #252 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Princeton Public Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 472 in NJ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Princeton High School (math 45% / reading 76%, grade C+, #54 of 399 statewide, top 14%, 1,532 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $71k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $67k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$115k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $719k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $462,524 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $679,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Birch Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,236 (0%)	11mo	$680,000	$550	84

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $283,816
• Equity at exit: $608,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.39×
• Total profit: $883,620
• Equity at exit: $1,274,000

Cash invested: $201,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08542

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,625 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,771
• Tax from tax record: −$703 /mo · $8,431/yr
• Insurance: −$300
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$971
• Net cashflow: $-1,119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,041

Max offer price $521,365

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-712	-5% $-915	+0% $-1,119	+5% $-1,322	+10% $-1,526
Rent	-10% $-1,484	-5% $-1,301	+0% $-1,119	+5% $-936	+10% $-753
Rate	-1.0pp $-757	-0.5pp $-936	base $-1,119	+0.5pp $-1,305	+1.0pp $-1,495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $179,750
• Closing costs: $21,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Lytle St #1 Princeton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	22d	1	0.26mi
100 Albert Way Princeton, NJ	3.0	1.0–3.0	1331	$5,470	$4.11	15d	1	0.34mi
195 Nassau St Princeton, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$10,650	$10.25	15d	27	0.79mi
203-205 Nassau St Unit 3 Princeton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1000	$4,000	$4.00	22d	1	0.82mi
275 N Harrison St Princeton, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$4,380	$4.34	15d	1	0.98mi
365 Terhune Rd Princeton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$6,475	$6.20	15d	17	1.11mi
100 Thanet Cir Princeton, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.5	1245	$5,945	$4.77	15d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   status Active
3. 2026-05-01
   historical
4. 2026-05-01
   listed $719,000 Active
5. 2019-03-28
   historical
6. 2019-03-01
   price $568,000
7. 2018-11-28
   listed $588,000 Active
8. 2010-07-26
   soldstatus $280,000
9. 2010-07-16
   soldstatus $280,000 854-char remark

   Show marketing remark (854 chars)

   SHORT SALE -- Talk about a "Perfect Storm, " if you settle on this house, you get to live in prestigious Princeton, send your students to Princeton's blue ribbon schools, and buy this duplex home at a bargain price! This duplex had the hardwood floors refinished in the Living Room and all three Bedrooms in 2005. Moreover, the Bathrooms, HVAC and Kitchen were updated in 2004. Kitchen with new cabinets, dishwasher, oven, and a ceramic tile floor. The Living Room boasts a floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace and there is a covered concrete front and back porches. The home is sunny and bright and painted in neutral colors and features a private backyard with mature trees, landscaping and a shed. Shed is being sold "As Is. " Within a short walk of Community Park, Downtown Princeton and famous and historic Princeton University.

10. 2010-07-16
    soldstatus $280,000

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    SHORT SALE -- Talk about a "Perfect Storm, " if you settle on this house, you get to live in prestigious Princeton, send your students to Princeton's blue ribbon schools, and buy this duplex home at a bargain price! This duplex had the hardwood floors refinished in the Living Room and all three Bedrooms in 2005. Moreover, the Bathrooms, HVAC and Kitchen were updated in 2004. Kitchen with new cabinets, dishwasher, oven, and a ceramic tile floor. The Living Room boasts a floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace and there is a covered concrete front and back porches. The home is sunny and bright and painted in neutral colors and features a private backyard with mature trees, landscaping and a shed. Shed is being sold "As Is. " Within a short walk of Community Park, Downtown Princeton and famous and historic Princeton University.

11. 2010-05-25
    historical 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    SHORT SALE -- Talk about a "Perfect Storm, " if you settle on this house, you get to live in prestigious Princeton, send your students to Princeton's blue ribbon schools, and buy this duplex home at a bargain price! This duplex had the hardwood floors refinished in the Living Room and all three Bedrooms in 2005. Moreover, the Bathrooms, HVAC and Kitchen were updated in 2004. Kitchen with new cabinets, dishwasher, oven, and a ceramic tile floor. The Living Room boasts a floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace and there is a covered concrete front and back porches. The home is sunny and bright and painted in neutral colors and features a private backyard with mature trees, landscaping and a shed. Shed is being sold "As Is. " Within a short walk of Community Park, Downtown Princeton and famous and historic Princeton University.

12. 2010-02-01
    listed $324,900 854-char remark

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    SHORT SALE -- Talk about a "Perfect Storm, " if you settle on this house, you get to live in prestigious Princeton, send your students to Princeton's blue ribbon schools, and buy this duplex home at a bargain price! This duplex had the hardwood floors refinished in the Living Room and all three Bedrooms in 2005. Moreover, the Bathrooms, HVAC and Kitchen were updated in 2004. Kitchen with new cabinets, dishwasher, oven, and a ceramic tile floor. The Living Room boasts a floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace and there is a covered concrete front and back porches. The home is sunny and bright and painted in neutral colors and features a private backyard with mature trees, landscaping and a shed. Shed is being sold "As Is. " Within a short walk of Community Park, Downtown Princeton and famous and historic Princeton University.

13. 2010-02-01
    listed $324,900

    Show marketing remark (854 chars)

    SHORT SALE -- Talk about a "Perfect Storm, " if you settle on this house, you get to live in prestigious Princeton, send your students to Princeton's blue ribbon schools, and buy this duplex home at a bargain price! This duplex had the hardwood floors refinished in the Living Room and all three Bedrooms in 2005. Moreover, the Bathrooms, HVAC and Kitchen were updated in 2004. Kitchen with new cabinets, dishwasher, oven, and a ceramic tile floor. The Living Room boasts a floor-to-ceiling stone fireplace and there is a covered concrete front and back porches. The home is sunny and bright and painted in neutral colors and features a private backyard with mature trees, landscaping and a shed. Shed is being sold "As Is. " Within a short walk of Community Park, Downtown Princeton and famous and historic Princeton University.

14. 2005-09-19
    soldstatus $372,500
15. 2005-07-05
    soldstatus $372,500
16. 2005-05-26
    historical
17. 2005-03-07
    listed $372,500
18. 2004-11-27
    soldstatus $270,000
19. 2004-10-20
    soldstatus $270,000
20. 2004-09-07
    historical
21. 2004-06-19
    listed $270,000
22. 2003-07-01
    historical
23. 2003-03-24
    listed $279,000
24. 2003-03-22
    historical
25. 2002-06-20
    listed $285,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,431 · $703/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,167 · $1,097/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,736/yr (+$395/mo · 56.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,275
• − Property taxes: −$8,431
• − Insurance: −$3,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,440
• − Management: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$20,916
• Taxable loss: −$26,595
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,383
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3413410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $112,202
• Composite: 57.34/100
• National rank: #1083
• State rank: #49 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #252

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 52,921
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 2,533
• Household income: $105,524
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 12% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Native American 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.25%
• Current HPI: 359.7223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+152.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $719,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-01 Price Changed $568,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-11-28 Listed $588,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-16 Sold (MLS) $280,000 TREND
• 2010-07-16 Sold (MLS) $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-01 Listed $324,900 TREND
• 2010-02-01 Listed $324,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $372,500 Public Records
• 2005-07-05 Sold (MLS) $372,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-05-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-03-07 Listed $372,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-20 Sold (MLS) $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-09-07 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-06-19 Listed $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-07-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-03-24 Listed $279,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-03-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-06-20 Listed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,431 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.