3830 Green Mountain Dr #202

Branson, MO 65616

$120,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 267 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,017/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$345
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,179/yr
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.46%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $73k (39.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (15.3% below list).
• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1267 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.8% in Branson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but photos don't show
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but photos don't show
• Major: bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, but photos don't show
• Major: kitchen — No visible kitchen, but photos don't show
• Major: systems — No visible systems, but photos don't show