3830 Green Mountain Dr #202 · Branson, MO 65616

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 630 sqft · Condo · 359 Days on market

Built 2007 Poor condition $190/sqft · 41% below area Est $202k · 41% under $345/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy Carefree Living in the heart of Branson, MO!This Kingsgate second floor condo, with elevator access, offers easy low maintenance living with all utilities and amenities included in the COA dues, Such as, water, sewer, trash, electric, pool, lawn care, snow removal, and building maintenance. Perfect for full-time living, investment rental or a vacation getaway. The property is meticulously maintained and landscaped. Conveniently located near Branson's entertainment, shopping and dining attractions.

Key facts

• Landscaped
• Utilities included
• Elevator access

Tags

• ELEVATOR ACCESS
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• UTILITIES INCLUDED
• METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED
• LANDSCAPED
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (45.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $66k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #2,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Branson R-IV (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #44 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 503 students, 65% FRL); Branson Jr. High (math 48% / reading 49%, grade C-, #81 of 391 statewide, top 21%, 724 students, 51% FRL); Branson High (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #145 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 1,423 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 1613 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 331 units permitted in Taney County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taney County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,892 (45.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.94%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,996
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -40.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3830 Green Mountain Dr #402	0.00mi	1/1.0	605 (-4%)	21mo	$130,000	$215	76
328 Summer Dr	0.93mi	1/1.0	640 (+2%)	11mo	$209,900	$328	53
283 Oak Ridge Rd	1.11mi	1/—	642 (+2%)	12mo	$189,900	$296	52
113 Grand Mountain Ave	0.96mi	1/1.0	692 (+10%)	5mo	$189,900	$274	45
263 Forest Park Ln	1.14mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (+7%)	5mo	$129,900	$193	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-38,889
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-58,724
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65616

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 1613
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $964 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $527/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$345
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $65,892

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-238	-5% $-272	+0% $-306	+5% $-340	+10% $-374
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-344	+0% $-306	+5% $-268	+10% $-230
Rate	-1.0pp $-246	-0.5pp $-276	base $-306	+0.5pp $-337	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3524 Keeter St Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	454	$850	$1.87	0d	5	0.22mi
117 Colleen St Branson, MO	2.0	2.0	690	$1,000	$1.45	17d	2	0.33mi
300 Francis St Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	427	$1,050	$2.46	0d	4	0.85mi
300 Francis St Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	427	$1,050	$2.46	10d	4	0.85mi
3011 W 76 Country Blvd Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	370	$1,003	$2.71	0d	1	0.90mi
407 Judy St Unit B15 Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	44d	1	1.18mi
406 Judy St Unit 21 Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	650	$745	$1.15	184d	1	1.21mi
2849 Gretna Rd Apt 10 Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	360	$695	$1.93	184d	1	1.39mi
2849 Gretna Rd Unit 03 Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	360	$695	$1.93	10d	1	1.39mi
2849 Gretna Rd Apt 1 Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	360	$710	$1.97	23d	1	1.39mi
2425 W 76 Country Blvd Branson, MO	1.0	1.0	330	$995	$3.02	0d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail $345/mo · $4,140/yr condo

• Likely covers: watersewertrashelectriclandscapingsnow removalpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 359 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 358 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $120,000 Active 357 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $120,000 Active 356 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $120,000 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $120,000 Active 352 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $120,000 Active 351 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 350 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 349 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 348 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 347 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $120,000 Active 346 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 345 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 344 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 343 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $120,000 Active 342 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 341 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 340 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $120,000 Active 339 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 338 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $120,000 Active 337 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $120,000 Active 336 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $120,000 Active 335 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 334 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $120,000 Active 333 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $120,000 Active 332 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $120,000 Active 331 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $120,000 Active 330 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 329 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 328 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 327 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $120,000 Active 326 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 325 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $120,000 Active 324 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 323 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 322 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 321 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 320 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $120,000 Active 319 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $120,000 Active 318 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $120,000 Active 317 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $120,000 Active 316 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $120,000 Active 315 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $120,000 Active 314 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $120,000 Active 313 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $120,000 Active 311 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $120,000 Active 310 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $120,000 Active 309 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $120,000 Active 308 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $527 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,164 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$637/yr (+$53/mo · 120.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$527
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$926
• − Management: −$926
• − HOA: −$4,140
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$5,758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $31,500–$56,700 screening

This Kingsgate condo requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, interior walls, and roof. Significant updates are needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible damage, but photos don't show
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior, but photos don't show
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms, but photos don't show
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen, but photos don't show
• Major systems — No visible systems, but photos don't show

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding replacement — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both interior repairs and painting — Enhances living space and rental appeal ↑
• Both roof inspection and repair — Ensures structural integrity and safety ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cedar Ridge Primary Middle Branson Jr. High C- MO #81/391 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Branson High D MO #145/521 Nat'l #6,078/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Branson R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2905760
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,473
• Composite: 41.96/100
• National rank: #3347
• State rank: #44 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 77/100

Livability — Branson

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #2940

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Branson, MO
• County: Taney County · 59,017 people
• City population: 28,460
• Metro: Branson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 28,460
• Household income: $60,489
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Taney County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,017 people
• By 2030: 61,235 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 65,225 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 68,842 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 77,705 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 82,002 · +38.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Taney

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.3) · D 19.9% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -59.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.3 2020: R+57.7 2016: R+59.3 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.45%
• Current HPI: 200.8392
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Branson, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+132.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $130,000 SOMO
• 2025-11-14 Listed $144,000 SOMO
• 2020-12-28 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-09-18 Listed $70,000 SOMO
• 2017-09-13 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2017-03-17 Listed $55,995 SOMO

Property tax history

-11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $527 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.