957 Calle Aragon Unit O

Laguna Woods, CA 92637

$266,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,395
• Tax + insurance: −$443
• HOA: −$826
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,287/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.41%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $74,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $266k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (14.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $266k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#200 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saddleback Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #67 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $266k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.4% in Laguna Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,026/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1572% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.