3275 Pilot Cir

Heritage Bay, FL 34120

$799,900F

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,668 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 301 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,195
• Tax + insurance: −$921
• HOA: −$333
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$883
• Net cashflow: $-2,125/mo
• Annual: $-25,505/yr
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.57%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $223,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $800k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $424k (46.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $421k (47.4% below list).
• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($704k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $421k (47.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1124 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $125k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $500k; list at $800k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,207/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($94k/yr) (locally 409% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?