2650 W Union Hills Dr #164

Phoenix, AZ 85027

$61,500B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$323
• Tax + insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $780/mo
• Annual: $9,361/yr
• Cap rate: 21.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.36%
• DSCR: 3.42
• 1% rule: 2.48%
• Cash to close: $17,220

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $425 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Park Meadows Elementary School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade D, #289 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 600 students, 54% FRL); Deer Valley Middle School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #105 of 218 statewide, top 49%, 537 students, 65% FRL); Barry Goldwater High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #147 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 1,641 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 21% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Deer Valley Unified District (4246) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.