212 Ocelot Dr

Arabi, LA 70032

$279,000C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,639 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-17/mo
• Annual: $-206/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.76%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-206/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#45 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 112 units permitted in St. Bernard Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Bernard County population projected at +89% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $279k implies a 6705% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.3% in Arabi — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.