166 Crystal Brk

Griffin, GA 30223

$171,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$899
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $889/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $48,020

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($889/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (15.6% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#529 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cowan Road Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,041 of 1,228 statewide, top 87%, 566 students, 98% FRL); Cowan Road Middle School (math 8% / reading 14%, grade F, #426 of 470 statewide, top 91%, 543 students, 98% FRL); Griffin High School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,498 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 68% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 42% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Griffin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.