647 Route 45

Alloway, NJ 08079

$185,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,531 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$480
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,222/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.36%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (9.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (7.7% below list).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $576 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-703 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#368 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Mannington Township School District (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 612 in NJ (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.