222 Woodland Cir

Crockett, TX 75835

$145,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-589/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-589/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $136k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (10.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $130k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,005 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crockett ISD (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #736 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett El (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 399 students, 92% FRL).
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Crockett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.