23 Scrimshaw Ln

Amagansett, NY 11930

$3,095,000B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 216 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $30,631/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,231
• Tax + insurance: −$2,210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,432
• Net cashflow: $5,758/mo
• Annual: $69,092/yr
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $866,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $3.10M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.06M (1.0% below list).
• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.72M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.72M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($21k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,030 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Amagansett Union Free School District (town): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #106 of 755 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $1.35M; list at $3.10M implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $867k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$215k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $30,631/mo this rent would consume 298% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.