23 Scrimshaw Ln · Amagansett, NY 11930

$3,095,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 216 Days on market

Built 1985 1.20 ac lot $1105/sqft · 11% below area Est $3493k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully situated on a quiet cul-de-sac residential lane, close to the shops of Amagansett, as well as the ocean beach, this bright and immaculate contemporary house is ideal. The 1.2-acre grounds are well-landscaped, offering privacy to the large sun deck and heated saltwater swimming pool. Bathed in natural light, the interior of the house features a living room with fireplace, high ceiling and glass doors to the poolside patio. The kitchen has been recently renovated with soapstone countertops, stainless steel farm sink, Bosch appliances, Bertazzoni refrigerator, and an elegant dining room. The four bedrooms and three full baths include a first-floor primary ensuite with fireplace and a wall of glass sliding doors leading out to the deck and pool area. The third floor offers the perfect space for a home office with distant ocean views. The finished lower level offers a large media/rec room, laundry room, and gym with egress. Outside, there is also a detached garage, lovely pool house with full bath and wet bar, and an outdoor shower.

Key facts

• High ceiling
• Large sun deck
• 1.2 acre lot

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC RESIDENTIAL LANE
• WELL-LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• LARGE SUN DECK
• HEATED SALTWATER SWIMMING POOL
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• HIGH CEILING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $3.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.06M (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.72M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,030 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Amagansett Union Free School District (town): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #106 of 755 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $30,631/mo this rent would consume 298% of the median local household income ($123k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $60k of equity ($21k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $867k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$215k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.72M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.35M; list at $3.10M implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,723,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,492,905
• List price: $3,095,000
• Delta: -11.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $461,793
• Equity at exit: $1,097,596

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $1,498,016
• Equity at exit: $1,490,861

Cash invested: $866,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11930

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $30,631 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,231
• Tax from tax record: −$920 /mo · $11,044/yr
• Insurance: −$1,290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,432
• Net cashflow: $5,758

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,342

Max offer price $3,095,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $773,750
• Closing costs: $92,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Central Ave Amagansett, NY	4.0	3.0	2300	$25,000	$10.87	19d	1	0.51mi
16 Dune Ln Amagansett, NY	4.0	3.0	2000	$70,000	$35.00	24d	1	0.59mi
8 Devon Woods Close Amagansett, NY	4.0	4.5	4000	$25,000	$6.25	10d	1	0.65mi
11 Heatherwood Ln Amagansett, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$25,000	$12.50	1d	1	0.72mi
16 Woodege Cir Amagansett, NY	4.0	5.0	4025	$25,000	$6.21	1d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $3,095,000 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,095,000 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,095,000 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,095,000 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,095,000 Active 198 DOM
14. 2025-11-14
    listed $3,095,000 Active 1055-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

    Beautifully situated on a quiet cul-de-sac residential lane, close to the shops of Amagansett, as well as the ocean beach, this bright and immaculate contemporary house is ideal. The 1.2-acre grounds are well-landscaped, offering privacy to the large sun deck and heated saltwater swimming pool. Bathed in natural light, the interior of the house features a living room with fireplace, high ceiling and glass doors to the poolside patio. The kitchen has been recently renovated with soapstone countertops, stainless steel farm sink, Bosch appliances, Bertazzoni refrigerator, and an elegant dining room. The four bedrooms and three full baths include a first-floor primary ensuite with fireplace and a wall of glass sliding doors leading out to the deck and pool area. The third floor offers the perfect space for a home office with distant ocean views. The finished lower level offers a large media/rec room, laundry room, and gym with egress. Outside, there is also a detached garage, lovely pool house with full bath and wet bar, and an outdoor shower.

15. 2007-08-24
    soldstatus $1,350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,044 · $920/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $31,675 · $2,640/mo
• Expected delta: +$20,631/yr (+$1,719/mo · 186.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $367,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$173,368
• − Property taxes: −$11,044
• − Insurance: −$15,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$29,405
• − Management: −$29,405
• − Depreciation: −$90,036
• Taxable income: $18,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,520
• After-tax cash flow: $64,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amagansett Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3602880
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $78,077
• Composite: 67.17/100
• National rank: #848
• State rank: #106 of 755 in NY

Livability — Amagansett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1030
• US rank: #20219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amagansett, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 842
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 842
• Household income: $123,257
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Slovene 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.25%
• Current HPI: 541.254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+129.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Listed $3,095,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,044 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.