442 Cedar St

Lyons, OR 97358

$376,200D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,140/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,973
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-673/mo
• Annual: $-8,071/yr
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $105,336

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $376k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (43.1% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#176 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Mari-Linn Elementary School (184 students, 70% FRL); Stayton Middle School (450 students, 71% FRL); Stayton High School (697 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 46% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.