442 Cedar St · Lyons, OR 97358

$376,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1961 0.30 ac lot $240/sqft · 17% below area Est $452k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One of a kind home located in the heart of Lyons. Spacious lot, partially fenced w/ room for RV parking & oversized garage. Good condition w/updates throughout. Open family room features fireplace and flows nicely to dining area & kitchen. Ample storage & counterspace. Primary bedroom boasts private bath & doors to exterior. Spacious deck for outdoor activities & summer entertaining with firepit & hot tub. Plenty of space for gardening & chicken run comlplete the country feel. Gas, forced air.

Key facts

• Features fireplace
• Open family room
• Room for rv parking

Tags

• ONE OF A KIND HOME
• ROOM FOR RV PARKING
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• FEATURES FIREPLACE
• AMPLE STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $376k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (43.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#176 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Mari-Linn Elementary School (184 students, 70% FRL); Stayton Middle School (450 students, 71% FRL); Stayton High School (697 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 46% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 311 units permitted in Linn County in 2024 (60 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Linn County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($354k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,971 (43.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 14.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $451,514
• List price: $376,200
• Delta: -16.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
423 Ash Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+3%)	19mo	$525,000	$325	74
640 Holley Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	20mo	$540,000	$344	66
433 N 14th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-8%)	1mo	$365,000	$252	63
396 Hickory Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-8%)	8mo	$450,000	$312	63
201 Ironwood Ct	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-1%)	10mo	$600,000	$385	61
243 Cedar St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-14%)	9mo	$456,000	$340	60
435 14th St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-8%)	3mo	$435,000	$300	57
860 6th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,724 (+10%)	15mo	$586,000	$340	55
526 N Th St	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,338 (-15%)	10mo	$455,000	$340	54
628 13th St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,408 (-10%)	1mo	$500,000	$355	54
870 6th St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,731 (+10%)	22mo	$575,340	$332	48
203 Ironwood Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-13%)	21mo	$459,900	$338	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-103,912
• Equity at exit: $56,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-146,105
• Equity at exit: $32,527

Cash invested: $105,336 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97358

• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 14.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,973
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,801/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,991

Max offer price $257,384

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-460	-5% $-566	+0% $-673	+5% $-779	+10% $-886
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-757	+0% $-673	+5% $-588	+10% $-504
Rate	-1.0pp $-483	-0.5pp $-577	base $-673	+0.5pp $-770	+1.0pp $-869

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,050
• Closing costs: $11,286
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $376,200 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $376,200 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $376,200 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $376,200 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $376,200 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $376,200 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $376,200 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $376,200 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $376,200 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $376,200 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $376,200 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $376,200 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $376,200 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $376,200 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $376,200 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $376,200 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-04-06
    listed $418,000 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    One of a kind home located in the heart of Lyons. Spacious lot, partially fenced w/ room for RV parking & oversized garage. Good condition w/updates throughout. Open family room features fireplace and flows nicely to dining area & kitchen. Ample storage & counterspace. Primary bedroom boasts private bath & doors to exterior. Spacious deck for outdoor activities & summer entertaining with firepit & hot tub. Plenty of space for gardening & chicken run comlplete the country feel. Gas, forced air.

18. 2025-09-18
    historical
19. 2025-08-01
    historical Active under Contract
20. 2025-07-18
    price $415,000
21. 2025-05-16
    price $425,000
22. 2025-04-26
    listed $449,900 Active
23. 2022-10-26
    soldstatus $424,000 Sold
24. 2022-10-26
    soldstatus $424,000
25. 2022-09-07
    historical Active under Contract
26. 2022-08-27
    price $414,000
27. 2022-08-09
    listed $429,000 Active
28. 2020-06-05
    soldstatus $291,000 Sold
29. 2020-06-05
    soldstatus $291,000
30. 2020-05-01
    historical Active under Contract
31. 2020-01-27
    listed $315,000 Active
32. 2013-11-25
    historical
33. 2013-10-23
    listed $220,000 Active
34. 2010-04-05
    soldstatus $209,200
35. 2009-04-27
    historical
36. 2008-04-29
    listed $229,000
37. 1991-05-10
    soldstatus $45,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,801 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,649 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$849/yr (+$71/mo · 30.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,073
• − Property taxes: −$2,801
• − Insurance: −$1,881
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$10,944
• Taxable loss: −$15,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,631
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Santiam SD 29J
• NCES district ID: 4100020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $54,619
• Composite: 63.96/100
• National rank: #584
• State rank: #1 of 58 in OR

Livability — Lyons

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #10624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lyons, OR
• Population (ZIP): 2,502

Population outlook (Linn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,026 people
• By 2030: 129,540 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 132,780 · +4.5%
• By 2050: 133,614 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 129,061 · +1.6%
• By 2100: 112,224 · -11.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Linn

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.4) · D 36.2% · R 60.6% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.4pp · 2024: -24.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.4 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+17.2 2008: R+11.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -196.89%
• Current HPI: 219.0268
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+814.7% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $418,000 WVMLS
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2025-08-01 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $415,000 WVMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $425,000 WVMLS
• 2025-04-26 Listed $449,900 WVMLS
• 2022-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $424,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-26 Sold (MLS) $424,000 WVMLS
• 2022-09-07 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2022-08-27 Price Changed $414,000 WVMLS
• 2022-08-09 Listed $429,000 WVMLS
• 2020-06-05 Sold (Public Records) $291,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-05 Sold (MLS) $291,000 WVMLS
• 2020-05-01 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2020-01-27 Listed $315,000 WVMLS
• 2013-11-25 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2013-10-23 Listed $220,000 WVMLS
• 2010-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $209,200 Public Records
• 2009-04-27 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2008-04-29 Listed $229,000 WVMLS
• 1991-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $45,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,801 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.