5676 Warrior River Rd

Concord, AL 35023

$168,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,442/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $115/mo
• Annual: $1,377/yr
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.93%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $154 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#266 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $168k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 37% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.