5676 Warrior River Rd · Concord, AL 35023

$168,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1940 1.90 ac lot $124/sqft · 13% below area Est $192k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming vintage home with lots of character, situated on nearly 2 acres for peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby shopping. This 2/3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers flexible space to fit your needs, whether you are looking for an extra bedroom, office or hobby space. Enjoy relaxing onthe inviting front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding. This property also features a large garage, ideal for parking, storage or a workshop. With plenty of room to use your imagination and make this property your own.

Key facts

• Large garage
• Inviting front porch
• Nearly 2 acres

Tags

• NEARLY 2 ACRES
• INVITING FRONT PORCH
• LARGE GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#266 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 250 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $154 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $168k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 37% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,164 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.93%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,145
• List price: $168,000
• Delta: -12.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1590 Arcade Ter	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,212 (-11%)	0mo	$153,000	$126	72
1546 Arcade Ter	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-3%)	22mo	$235,000	$178	66
936 Pinewood Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,359 (-0%)	10mo	$210,500	$155	62
303 Oak Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+7%)	14mo	$175,000	$120	62
1584 Arcade Ter	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-13%)	9mo	$140,000	$118	54
253 Masters Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+11%)	19mo	$195,000	$129	48
1636 Gillies Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+9%)	8mo	$125,000	$84	46
6459 William Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+8%)	21mo	$242,000	$164	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.6% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,354
• Equity at exit: $43,802

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $14,267
• Equity at exit: $48,826

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35023

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,442 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $162	+0% $115	+5% $67	+10% $20
Rent	-10% $1	-5% $58	+0% $115	+5% $172	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $157	base $115	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6051 Willow Cir Bessemer, AL	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,398	$1.02	15d	1	0.91mi
315 Pope Dr Bessemer, AL	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,225	$0.95	19d	1	1.38mi
3269 Allison Bonnett Memorial Dr Bessemer, AL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,435	$1.10	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $168,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    price $168,000 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Charming vintage home with lots of character, situated on nearly 2 acres for peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby shopping. This 2/3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers flexible space to fit your needs, whether you are looking for an extra bedroom, office or hobby space. Enjoy relaxing onthe inviting front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding. This property also features a large garage, ideal for parking, storage or a workshop. With plenty of room to use your imagination and make this property your own.

15. 2026-04-19
    price $182,000 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Charming vintage home with lots of character, situated on nearly 2 acres for peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby shopping. This 2/3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers flexible space to fit your needs, whether you are looking for an extra bedroom, office or hobby space. Enjoy relaxing onthe inviting front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding. This property also features a large garage, ideal for parking, storage or a workshop. With plenty of room to use your imagination and make this property your own.

16. 2026-04-18
    listed $182,500 Active 536-char remark

    Show marketing remark (536 chars)

    Charming vintage home with lots of character, situated on nearly 2 acres for peaceful country living with the convenience of nearby shopping. This 2/3 bedroom, 1 bath home offers flexible space to fit your needs, whether you are looking for an extra bedroom, office or hobby space. Enjoy relaxing onthe inviting front porch, perfect for morning coffee or evening unwinding. This property also features a large garage, ideal for parking, storage or a workshop. With plenty of room to use your imagination and make this property your own.

17. 2013-04-17
    soldstatus $78,479
18. 1999-12-17
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $878 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $878 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 37% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,384
• − Management: −$1,384
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$1,484
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$356
• After-tax cash flow: $1,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Concord

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #18252

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Concord, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 25,533
• Household income: $69,863
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 247.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.60%
• Current HPI: 389.38
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+124.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $168,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $182,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $182,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2013-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $78,479 Public Records
• 1999-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $878 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.