9475 Tibet Hwy SE

Allenhurst, GA 31313

$299,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,166 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,058/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$518
• HOA: −$34
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-494/mo
• Annual: $-5,923/yr
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.2% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.