9475 Tibet Hwy SE · Allenhurst, GA 31313

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 0.58 ac lot 2-car garage $138/sqft · at area comps Est $308k · at est. $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Chatman is one of our best selling and most practical homes! It includes features such as an oversized pantry plus a nearby supply closet to keep the mop and broom. The galley kitchen opens to the breakfast and great room boasting an electric fireplace. The adjoining dining room is perfect for hosting dinner parties, and the stately bay window lends a timeless charm to an already attractive room. Upstairs, three secondary bedrooms share a full bath and linen closet. The huge primary suite boasts a vaulted ceiling, sitting nook, his & hers closets, a double vanity and garden tub. Grill or play with the fur-babies in your large backyard after a long day. Artistic renderings are for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans, features and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Electric fireplace
• Patio

Tags

• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• FENCED YARD
• PATIO
• PERGOLA-STYLE FEATURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (29.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $205,842 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,037
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -2.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
341 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,151 (-1%)	13mo	$299,995	$139	68
859 Hunters Ln SE	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,151 (-1%)	4mo	$301,205	$140	66
74 Cloverfield Dr SE	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,984 (-8%)	2mo	$305,725	$154	65
9523 Tibet Hwy SE	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (+4%)	23mo	$314,975	$140	64
261 Deer Meadow Way	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (+4%)	14mo	$335,931	$149	64
129 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,002 (-8%)	14mo	$298,825	$149	61
685 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (+4%)	6mo	$315,825	$140	54
321 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (-11%)	13mo	$305,975	$159	53
575 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,002 (-8%)	8mo	$299,925	$150	52
767 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (+4%)	6mo	$315,525	$140	51
684 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,395 (+11%)	4mo	$314,375	$131	45
729 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,395 (+11%)	4mo	$314,825	$131	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-74,712
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-83,241
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $297,775 ($150/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,058 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,718/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,683

Max offer price $211,807

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-324	-5% $-409	+0% $-494	+5% $-578	+10% $-663
Rent	-10% $-656	-5% $-575	+0% $-494	+5% $-412	+10% $-331
Rate	-1.0pp $-343	-0.5pp $-418	base $-494	+0.5pp $-571	+1.0pp $-650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Sandy Run Rd SE Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	184d	1	1.39mi
3028 Arnall Dr Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,100	$1.29	1d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Tibet Road at SassafrasDirections available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $34 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tankUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Asphalt road accessHas view

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomAccessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilingsVaulted ceilingsDouble vanityPantryElectric fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomWasher hookupElectric water heater

HOA detail $34/mo · $408/yr

• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $299,000 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $299,000 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $299,000 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $299,000 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $299,000 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    price $299,000 Active 34 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $309,000 Active 34 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $309,000 Active 33 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $309,000 Active 32 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $309,000 Active 31 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $309,000 Active 30 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $309,000 Active 29 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 28 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $309,000 Active 27 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $309,000 Active 26 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $309,000 Active 25 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $309,000 Active 24 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $309,000 Active 23 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $309,000 Active 22 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $309,000 Active 21 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $309,000 Active 20 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $309,000 Active 19 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $309,000 Active 17 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $309,000 Active 16 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,718 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,718 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,701
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,718
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$11,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,717
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home, built in 2024, offers modern comfort and thoughtful design. With fresh paint and well-maintained landscaping, it's ready for immediate occupancy and can be easily enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance and tune-up — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Tibet Road at SassafrasDirections available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $34 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterSeptic tankUnderground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Asphalt road accessHas view

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomAccessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilingsVaulted ceilingsDouble vanityPantryElectric fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry roomWasher hookupElectric water heater

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-07 Price Changed $299,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-09-03 Listed $309,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-08-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-07-23 Price Changed $309,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $310,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-08-15 Sold (MLS) $291,425 Hive MLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $288,425 Hive MLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $288,425 Hive MLS