11002 Hammerly Boulevard Blvd #212

Houston, TX 77043

$164,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,738 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax + insurance: −$392
• HOA: −$464
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-243/mo
• Annual: $-2,910/yr
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.34%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $45,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $164k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherwood El (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 460 students, 66% FRL); Spring Forest Middle (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 962 students, 56% FRL); Stratford H S (math 52% / reading 59%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,272 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $164k implies a 185% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?