3423 Keokuk

St. Louis, MO 63118

$199,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,868 sqft · Built 1895 · MultiFamily · Active · 307 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $604/mo
• Annual: $7,251/yr
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $302/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $199k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,292/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1495% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.