9 bd · 7.5 ba ·
5,735 sqft ·
Built 2025
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 241 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$14,696/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,457
Tax + insurance
−$1,483
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,086
Net cashflow
$5,670/mo
Annual
$68,039/yr
Cap rate
14.39%
Cash-on-cash
28.93%
DSCR
2.29
1% rule
1.73%
Cash to close
$237,972
Investor read
This is a 3 × 3.0-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $850k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($68k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $850k).
It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($748k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $748k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#18 in MA, #752 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
Somerville (suburban): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #223 of 302 in MA (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $238k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.2% in Somerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $14,696/mo this rent would consume 143% of the median local household income ($124k/yr) (locally 1487% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?