736 State Highway Y

Ellington, MO 63638

$59,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1975 · Other · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $350/mo
• Annual: $4,203/yr
• Cap rate: 15.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.53%
• DSCR: 2.54
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $16,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#784 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: housing C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Southern Reynolds County R-II (rural): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #92 of 324 in MO (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP.
• Reynolds County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.